Managing the new age of construction risk
The global construction market is set for a sustained period of strong growth, driven by an expected surge in government spending on infrastructure and the transition to net zero. However, the switch to sustainable energy and the adoption of modern building methods will transform the risk landscape, with radical changes in design, materials and construction processes.
According to a recent report fromMarsh and Oxford Economics [1], the global construction industry is forecast to grow 42% to $15trn by 2030. The construction industry is expected to be a major driver of economic growth in the coming decade, outperforming manufacturing and services.
The positive growth outlook is based on a number of factors. Rising populations in emerging markets, urbanization and a growing working age population are expected to drive the need for homebuilding, infrastructure and workplace construction. The transition to a low carbon or net zero economy will require significant investment in alternative forms of energy, such as wind, solar and hydrogen, as well as power storage, transmission and supporting services. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) [2], pursuing net zero would create a market for wind turbines, solar panels, lithium-ion batteries, electrolyzers and fuel cells of well over $1trn a year by 2050, comparable in size to the current oil market.

The shift to electric transport will also require investment in new plants and battery manufacturing facilities, as well as charging infrastructure and power generation. Ford alone has committed to$11bn [3] investment in new plants. Huge investment is also required to make buildings more sustainable and lower greenhouse gas emissions. According to the International Finance Corporation [4] (IFC), green building in emerging markets represents a $24.7trn investment opportunity by 2030.
Climate change adaption and mitigation will also give rise to opportunities for the construction sector. Rising sea levels and increased risk of flooding will require new coastal and flood defenses, as well as sewage and drainage systems. Commercial buildings and plants may need upgrading to protect assets from storms and floods, while ageing infrastructure will need to be upgraded to cope with more extreme weather events.
Infrastructure is forecast to be the fastest growth sector for construction with annual average growth of 5.1% [5] globally during the period from 2020 to 2025, driven by unprecedented levels of government stimulus. The US has passed a $1.2trn infrastructure bill while the EU has agreed a €723bn Recovery and Resilience Facility. However, given government borrowing during the pandemic, public sector and infrastructure investment is likely to see an increasing need for Public Private Partnerships (PPPs).
This boom in global construction will, however, present challenges for the construction and engineering sector, and their insurers. In the medium term, sudden surges in growth could put supply chains under additional pressure and exacerbate the existing shortage of skilled labor. Longer-term, huge investments in green energy will mean larger values at risk, while the rapid adoption of unproven technology, building methods and materials will require close co-operation between underwriting, claims and risk engineering, as well between insurers and their clients.

[1] Marsh & Guy Carpenter, Oxford Economics, Future of Construction, September 2021
[2] International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook, October 13, 2021
[3] BBC, Ford announces $11.4bn investment in electric vehicle plants, September 28, 2021
[4] International Finance Corporation, Green Buildings: A Financial and Policy Blueprint for Emerging Markets
[5] Marsh & Guy Carpenter, Oxford Economics, Future of Construction, September 2021
Image sources: Adobe Stock
Managing the new age of construction risk -
10 trends to watch as the sector builds back better
Top 10 global construction markets 2030
Global top 10 construction markets see continued shift to emerging markets, with China and US clear leaders in 2030. These 10 markets are expected to represent two-thirds of global output in 2030.
Source: Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics, Future of Construction, Marsh & Guy Carpenter. Graphic: Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty
Top five causes of loss: engineering and construction claims
Cause of loss by value of claims
Based on analysis of 29,640 insurance industry claims between January 1, 2016 and December 31, 2020 with an approximate value of €11.3bn (US$12.8bn). Claims total includes the share of other insurers in addition to AGCS.
Source: Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty
Cause of loss by number of claims
Based on analysis of 29,640 insurance industry claims between January 1, 2016 and December 31, 2020 with an approximate value of €11.3bn (US$12.8bn). Claims total includes the share of other insurers in addition to AGCS.
Source: Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty
10 trends to watch as the sector builds back better
1. Construction trends in the new age of risk


2. Infrastructure projects – a key element of the post-Covid-19 economic recovery strategy
3. Sustainability will drive changes in risk profile


4. Upscaling clean energy brings challenging risks
5. Hydrogen may emerge as a new energy sector but brings risks


6. Modular construction is growing, but with enhanced exposures
7. Pandemic increases claims costs and causes materials and labor issues, but remote inspections are a success story


8. Time to build in extreme weather risks
9. Water damage a major cause of loss, especially at weekends and out of hours


10. Digitalization of construction creates cyber exposures
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Further information
Annual survey identifying business risks
Allianz Risk Barometer

Top 3 business risks in Engineering, Construction and Real Estate in 2022
- Business interruption (43%) - 2021 rank: 1 (44%)
- Natural catastrophes (42%) - 2021 rank: 2 (35%)
- Fire, explosion (24%) - 2021 rank: 4 (32%)
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